Tonight is the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery. Held in the glorious town of Secaucus, New Jersey, a third-party firm at the NHL Network studio will pull a number combination based on lottery balls obtained. Whichever non-playoff team owns that combination will win one of the two draft lotteries held this evening. This is your preview. Which is unfortunately relevant as the New Jersey Devils did not make the playoffs in 2023-24. What is also relevant to the lottery is the 2024 NHL Draft itself. Let us preview both. First, the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery:
The Time: 6:30 PM ET
The Location: The NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey
The Broadcast: TV - ESPN, SportsNet, TVA Sports; Stream - ESPN+
The Lottery Process: It is the same process as since 2022, when the Devils were last in it.
There will be two lottery drawings. A lottery winner can move up no more than 10 spots from where they finished in the season. This means that only 11 out of 16 teams in the drawing can actually win the first overall pick and only 12 out of 16 teams in the drawing can win the second overall pick. Since they finished 2023-24 with the 10th worst record in the NHL, the New Jersey Devils could win either lottery to take first or second overall in 2024. Philadelphia, Minnesota, Pittsburgh (whose pick is owned by San Jose), Detroit, and St. Louis cannot take first overall. Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and St. Louis cannot take second overall. Should those teams win, then the draft order is decided by record.
A team cannot win a lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Montreal and New Jersey won a lottery (first, second) in 2022. If either wins a lottery tonight, then they cannot win another one until 2027. Chicago and Anaheim won a lottery (first, second) in 2023. Should they win a lottery tonight, then they cannot win another one until 2028.
The Stakes: The owner of first overall will likely be happy to be able to take center Macklin Celebrini, who is coming off a 64-point-in-38-game freshman season at Boston University. Celebrini may not be as much of a game changer as Conor Bedard was or what James Hagens (2025) and Gavin McKenna (2026) could be, but anyone who wants to disavow a guy who just crushed college hockey as an 18-year old is making a big mistaken.
The owner of second overall will have some real tantalizing options between Ivan Demidov, defenseman Anton Silayev, defenseman Artyom Levshunov, center Konsta Helenius, and many more.
The Draft Odds: From Tankathon, here are the odds for where the Devils could end up in the first round from tonight’s lottery drawings:
- First Overall: 3.5%
- Second Overall: 3.7%
- Third Overall: 0.1%
- Tenth Overall (no change): 73.3%
- Eleventh Overall: 18.4%
- Twelfth Overall: 0.9%
There is a remote possibility of the Devils moving up but being bumped back a spot depending on the other winner. Their odds of dropping back are higher based on one of the teams behind them winning a lottery, therefore dropping the Devils back a spot. Still, expect the Devils to stay at 10th overall. Whether or not the Devils will get to use that pick is up to Devils General Manager Tom Fitzgerald. Still, feel free to simulate the draft lottery at Tankathon for kicks. You know, kicks.
The Devils Draft Picks for 2024 So Far: The Devils do not have a ton of “draft capital,” which is a fancy way of saying they do not have a lot of draft picks that are worth a lot. Their first rounder is valuable and that is pretty much it. The Devils own only four of their original seven draft picks for 2024. They did acquire Winnipeg’s third round pick and Colorado’s fifth round picks to bring the Devils up to six picks for this upcoming draft. Here is how they got the two picks and what they did to lose three as per CapFriendly:
- The Devils’ 2024 second round pick is owned by San Jose as a result of the Timo Meier trade in 2023. The pick had a condition that it would be upgraded to a first round pick if the Devils made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2023 and Meier playsed in at least half of those games or if the Devils made the ECFs outright in 2024. Neither happened, so the pick remains a second rounder. It should be 43rd overall, if my counting is right.
- The Timo Meier trade also included the Devils’ seventh round pick in 2024 as a throw-in. San Jose also threw in Colorado’s fifth round pick in 2024.
- The Devils traded their 2024 fourth round pick back in 2023 to Vancouver for Curtis Lazar. That pick has been moved to Calgary in January 2024 in the Elias Lindholm deal. Either way, the Devils do not have a fourth this year.
- The Devils acquired Winnipeg’s third rounder for this year for Tyler Toffoli. The Devils also got Winnipeg’s second rounder in 2025 in that same deal.
With only one pick within the first 64 picks, the Devils’ draft class for the year is expected to be filled with long shots and hopefuls. If they keep the first round pick - which is a big if given Fitzgerald’s desire for a goalie - then they can at least add a higher-end prospect to their prospect pool. What does that look like? Here’s a summary:
The Current Devils Prospect Pool: I am defining prospects as players not regularly playing in the NHL and either signed to entry level contracts or yet to be signed to entry level contracts while under the age of 25. Sorry, Yegor Zaitsev.
Unsigned
Goalies (0): None
Defensem*n (7): Artem Barabosha, Chase Cheslock, Ethan Edwards, Viktor Hurtig, Daniil Karpovich, Charlie Leddy, Daniil Orlov
Forwards (8): Cole Brown, Arseni Gritsyuk, Leeni Hämeenaho, Petr Hauser, Jaromir Pytlik, Samu Salminen, Artem Shlaine, Cam Squires
With yesterday’s signings of Seamus Casey and Jakub Malek, the reserve list of unsigned prospects has become thinner. Gritsyuk and Hämeenaho are easily the top guys remaining and after that, its a bunch of maybes (Squires?) and probably nots. In fact, if the Devils decide to not sign Pytlik and/or Shlaine by June and August 2024, respectively, then the forward group will become even smaller. The Devils can afford to re-stock the prospect pool with drafted players in general - except they only have six picks right now for 2024.
Signed to ELCs
Goalies (3) Tyler Brennan, Isaac Poulter, Jakub Málek
Defensem*n (6): Seamus Casey, Mikael Diotte, Topias Vilén, Michael Vukojevic, Daniil Misyul, Santeri Hatakka
Forwards (6): Josh Filmon, Chase Stillman, Graeme Clarke, Nathan Légaré, Dylan Wendt
The Utica forwards is even thinner if you consider that Clarke and Légaré are going to need new deals this year so the two 23-year olds are not exactly prospects in a traditional sense. You could say the same for Hatakka and Vukojevic. The Devils have supplemented this by adding Dylan Wendt, a forward out of Western Michigan University, and Mikael Diotte, a defenseman out of Drummondville of the QMJHL. The additions of Casey and Málek strengthen this group if only for having two names to be excited about for the moment. Filmon will be joining the Comets full-time next season; he will be one to watch to see how he acclimates to the pro game. There are some signs of brightness with Casey and Málek when Málek does come over after next season. The rest, well, it is not so appealing. Vilén, Misyul, and Stillman may be depth options at the NHL level one day. They will have to work and grow to do that; camp this Fall will be important for them.
What the Prospect Pool Needs: The challenge with this is that when you draft a player, you need to consider what your team needs in two to five years, not what they need today. NHL front offices have to be flexible because a lot can happen in that time frame. Maybe a player so significantly injured and suddenly a certain position or role becomes crucial to fill. Maybe an important player does not turn out to be so important after a long contract is signed and support is needed. Maybe season or playoff failure forces ownership (or the fans) to demand some changes and someone has to be the fall guy - which opens up a hole in the roster. The point is that you cannot look at the current roster, draft players to fill in holes, and then expect all to be good. This does not even consider how difficult it is to be in the NHL at age 18 or 19. You’re lucky if one or two players make the NHL roster that early, much less be significant players.
This is all to say that Best Player Available is not just my preference, it is my belief that it is sound way to make draft picks. Position and role and personality can follow the the talent. The Devils’ top end picks are with New Jersey now or yielded players with New Jersey now. Since 2017: Hischier, Ty Smith flipped for John Marino, the Big Deal, Holtz, Mercer, Mukhamadullin sent for Timo Meier, Luke Hughes, and Nemec. The exception was and is Chase Stillman. And a number of non-first rounders have cracked the NHL if not made it like Jesper Boqvist, Fabian Zetterlund, Yegor Sharangovich, Akira Schmid, Nikita Okhotiuk, and Nico Daws. Plenty of success. However, it is 2024 and the prospect pool has largely graduated. This has left the pool full of the recently drafted/signed, long term projects, and guys scraping for a shot in the future. The Devils do not need to be picky about who they draft. Anyone with significant talent is worth selecting.
I will say that if you want to see a specific position addressed, then center would be a good one to go with. The Devils have not drafted one in the last two years. Their last attempts at one were Samu Salminen, who is still in college and just transferred to University of Denver; and Zakhar Bardakov, whose rights were sent to Colorado for an ineffective hockey player in Kurtis MacDermid. Sure, the Devils do have Hischier and The Big Deal locking down the top two center positions. But this past season has shown that options are always needed for one reason or another. No team has ever complained about having too much talent at a position and it is easier to move a center to wing (see: Mercer) than a wing to center (see, uh, Mercer).
That all said, what the Devils really need are more talented prospects. With the team being locked in with their roster and their core players still at a fairly young age, the Devils can afford to swing for offensive talent and other skills that are valuable. I know, I know. Where is the defense? What is bottom-six skillset? It is far easier to turn an offensive player into one of those (think Jay Pandolfo and John Madden back in the day) than asking a defensive or depth player to play with more offense and skill.
The Devils’ first round pick can absolutely used to get a talent to be the centerpiece of the prospect pool. Whether or not the Devils will still have their first rounder by June 28, 2024 is another question entirely.
General Thoughts about the 2024 Draft Class: The general sentiment I keep running into is that there is Macklin Celebrini at #1 and then the rest of the class is going to depend on how you see their talents and what you and/or your team values in a prospect. This is not to say that everyone after Celebrini is not good. It is to say that there could be a lot of variation on draft boards from team to team. Even if the Devils stay at 10th overall, they could end up picking a player another team thinks is the second best prospect in the draft class - and it will not be seen as that much of a reach.
I will say that those hoping for a big goaltender prospect are going to be disappointed. The example of “the goalies in this class are no sure things except for this one guy” is not here. There is no Askarov or Knight or Wallstedt in this draft class. One of the most accomplished goalie prospects is a triple overager - meaning he has been passed over multiple times already.
Also, those who like North American prospects are going to like the potential first rounders for 2024. There are some high end Russian prospects of note like Ivan Demidov, Anton Silayev, Igor Chernyshov, and Nikita Artamonov. Norway’s best prospect in a while, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, is going to be a popular name for where the Devils may be picking. Konsta Helenius of Finland has been impressive; as has been Belarussian Artyom Levshunov with Michigan State and David Jiricek’s brother Adam Jirichek. Still, that’s a whopping eight players outside of North America and one of them actually did play in the States. It may be seen as a down year for Europe outside of Russia; there may not even be a Slovak or a Swede drafted in the first round. And the North American dominance it is not even driven by the USNTDP so much as it is by the WHL, OHL, USHL, and college. Sorry, QMJHL, not this year for you either apparently.
Of course, the World Under-18 Championships just ended. Outside of the major junior league playoffs and the Memorial Cup, the season is over for a lot of the 2024 draft class. While many are still drooling over 2025 draft eligibles James Hagens and Porter Marone as well as 2026 wonderkid Gavin McKenna, many teams will file reports on their last viewings of many players. Opinions will be given, arguments will be made, and draft boards will be put together and adjusted so many times between now and then. Which may all be moot if Fitzgerald sends the first round pick to a team for a goalie and then the draft will really be a long game of darts.
Last general thought: Good luck with a finding a draft eligible with a better name than John Mustard.
The Draft Profiles: They will begin later this week. Namely, Friday.
The Discussion: Please feel free to discuss and react to the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery in the comments. With a playoff game at 7 PM ET, it should actually go pretty quickly. We shall see. You may also discuss the 2024 NHL Draft in general in the comments as well. Site rules apply as always. Keep all comments clean, stream-less, and respectful. Go lottery combinations, I suppose.
