On June 28, 2024, Macklin Celebrini will (in all likelihood) hear his name called by the San Jose Sharks as the first overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. The Sharks will have the opportunity to make this pick from the stage at Sphere Las Vegas because it won the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday.
While Celebrini does not have quite the generational talent level of a player like Connor Bedard, he is a high-end, organization-changing player any team would love to have. Celebrini, who played for the Jr. Sharks in 2019-20 while his father worked for the Golden State Warriors, will soon take his talents back to Northern California.
Of local interest, the lottery determined that the Seattle Kraken will be picking No. 8 in the first round. Seattle entered the night with a 6.0 percent chance of landing the top overall section, a 6.2 percent chance of securing the second pick, and a .2 percent chance of ending up at No. 3. Seattle had a 54.4 percent chance of sticking at pick No. 8, while it had a 30.0 percent chance of moving down to pick No. 9 and a 3.2 percent chance of falling to No. 10 overall.
So, picking No. 8 was the most likely outcome for Seattle. We’ll get into the options that could be available to Seattle in that position momentarily.
As it turns out, the lottery did not move any team from its default draft position. San Jose had the best odds of landing the top pick to begin with. But the lottery guaranteed the Sharks will be able to add another building block in Celebrini. Unfortunately, Seattle will have to contend with that in the Pacific Division (along with whoever Anaheim picks at No. 3) for years to come.
Following today’s events, the top half of the 2024 NHL Draft first round will proceed as follows:
- San Jose
- Chicago
- Anaheim
- Columbus
- Montreal
- Utah
- Ottawa
- Seattle
- Calgary
- New Jersey
- Buffalo
- Philadelphia
- Minnesota
- San Jose (from Pittsburgh)
- Detroit
- St. Louis
How the Draft Lottery works
Generally speaking, the NHL Draft is organized so that the teams with worse records get better selections. This year, the Sharks had the league’s worst record, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, and so forth. The default order of each round has the Sharks picking first, followed by the Blackhawks, Ducks, etc.
That said, the order of selections at the top of the first round of the NHL Draft is determined by a lottery system. The sixteen teams that do not qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs all have the opportunity to move up from their default selection a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order.
The lottery consists of two drawings of ping pong balls. When a team’s number is drawn in the first drawing, the team moves up 10 spots as far as the first overall pick. For example, if the Ducks had been drawn, Anaheim would have moved to No. 1 overall. However, if Minnesota had been drawn, it would have moved up from No. 13 to No. 3.
The second lottery drawing is a similar process for a move up to and including the second overall pick. If, for example, Montreal were drawn, it would have moved up from its No. 5 default slot to No. 2. St. Louis, if selected, would have moved from No. 16 to No. 6.
The NHL held the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery Tuesday afternoon in a small 12-by-24-foot conference room at NHL Network Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. The results were later broadcast on NHL Network and ESPN.
It all happens in this literal 12 x 24 room, then we stay in here until the Draft reveal broadcast ends pic.twitter.com/aoKEfghyR0
— Sheng Peng (@Sheng_Peng) May 7, 2024
Worse teams not only have a higher default pick, but also higher odds of winning the lottery. Tankathon compiled the pre-draft odds of each team landing at any particular pick as follows:
As noted above, Seattle entered the night with the No. 8 pick, had a 12.4 percent chance of moving up, and a 33.2 percent chance of sliding back. As we now know, Seattle stuck at pick No. 8.
What could Seattle do with the No. 8 pick?
In February, we published our 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition). It was a composite ranking of 2024 NHL Draft-eligible prospects based on reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. Since that time, some “final” draft lists have started to emerge, including Central Scouting’s final rankings. There is also a new TSN list based on Bob McKenzie’s survey of league sources.
Based on all of that information, here are a few names that stand out to us that may be available to Seattle at pick No. 8, should the team ultimately make that pick.
Tij Iginla
Player profile: Forward | 6’0″ | 185 lbs | left shot | Canada
Team: Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
Statistics: 47 goals | 37 assists | 64 games | 1.31 PPG | 18.3 NHLe (Chatel)
Notes: Son of former NHL player Jarome Iginla; played for Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) from 2021-23; No. 16 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Iginla is No. 11 in white in the video below
Zeev Buium
Player profile: Defense | 6’0″ | 183 lbs | left shot | USA
Team: Univ. of Denver (NCAA)
Statistics: 11 goals | 39 assists | 42 games | 1.19 PPG | 25.37 NHLe (Chatel)
Notes: Most points by a first-time draft-eligible NCAA defenseman ever; five points in seven 2024 World Junior Championship games; No. 11 on mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Buium is No. 28 in white in the video below
Zayne Parekh
Player profile: Defense | 6’0″ | 181 lbs | right shot | Canada
Team: Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Statistics: 33 goals | 63 assists | 66 games | 1.45 PPG | 24.97 NHLe (Chatel)
Notes: Most points by a first-time draft-eligible CHL defenseman since 1989-90. No. 10 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Parekh is No. 19 in blue in the video below.
Konsta Helenius
Player profile: Center | 5’11” | 181 lbs | right shot | Finland
Team: Jukurit (Liiga)
Statistics: 14 goals | 22 assists | 51 games | .71 PPG | 27.75 NHLe (Chatel)
Notes: T-12th in Liiga all-time in points in a season by an under-18 player. Played at 2024 World Junior Championship, scoring two points. No. 9 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Helenius is No. 91 in yellow in the video below
Berkly Catton
Player profile: Forward | 5’11” | 163 lbs | left shot | Canada
Team: Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
Statistics: 54 goals | 62 assists | 68 games | 1.71 PPG | 23.8 NHLe (Chatel)
Notes: Leading under-18 scorer in the entire CHL in 2023-24; leading scorer for the Spokane Chiefs; No. 8 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Catton is No. 27 in white in the video below
Cole Eiserman
Player profile: Forward | 6’0″ | 196 lbs | left shot | USA
Team: U.S. National U18 Team (USHL)
Statistics: 49 goals | 27 assists | 49 games | 1.55 PPG | 20.9 NHLe (Chatel)
Notes: Leading scorer on the U.S. National Team Development Program in 2023-24; leading goal scorer for the Program all-time; No. 6 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Eiserman is No. 34 in white in the video below.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Threads @deepseahockey.
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John Oultonon May 7, 2024 at 5:04 pm
Tij Iginla would be nice as well. A fun twist would be the Kraken moving up to 7 because The Senators have 24 hours to decide if they will forfeit their 2024 1st round pick or push the decision to either 2025 or 2026, due to the invalid Evgenii Dadonov trade. I suspect they will make that pick, but not certain!
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Curtis Isackeon May 7, 2024 at 5:08 pm
John! We’re on the same page. Was rushing to get this finished post-lottery, but once it was out of my hands I remembered I wanted to mention Iginla too. He’s in the post now.
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Daryl Won May 7, 2024 at 5:16 pm
I was also wondering if the Flames might target the Senators for a swap to guarantee Iginla. Ottawa isn’t a lock to take a defenseman at seven and their is no telling what Francis will do. Even though top ten picks never get traded, the way opinion is divided on this group… this could be the year.
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Daryl Won May 7, 2024 at 5:06 pm
I usually think McKenzie is kinda the “gold standard” on these boards because his list is based on the opinion of actual NHL scouts… but I have a hard time seeing Calgary taking Helenius at No.9 just to watch New Jersey take Iginla at No.10. I get that its a ranking rather than a mock, but when it’s so obviously splintered, that should be considered.
Curtis, do you think there is any chance Francis uses the positioning just ahead of Calgary to try and extract a pick from them and swap places? If the Devils – whose last two firsts were Nemec and Hughes – want Iginla as well, it seems like there could be a lot of leverage and the Kraken could still get one of those “six” defensem*n at No.9 and almost certainly still at No.10.Loading...
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Daryl Won May 7, 2024 at 5:22 pm
Also… Carter Yakemchuk?
Won’t be there or No.8 is too high?
Personally, I’d prefer him to Parekh.Loading...
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Alan A Daleon May 8, 2024 at 2:44 am
Let us assume that Celebrini, Levshunov, Lindstrom, Demidov, and Silayev are picked in the top 5. That means there will be four top D left: Dickinson, Yakemchuk, Buium, and Parekh. The Kraken need a top D prospect and despite what Utah and Ottawa do, can find one here.
Or, does Francis go off reservation and decide he already has future NHL D prospects who just need more time and so turns to more offensive prospects like Eisesrman, Catton, Igilna, Helenius, or Sennecke?
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Daryl Won May 8, 2024 at 7:35 am
I’m not sure Lindstrom is a lock to go top five, and maybe not even top ten.
Given the lack of playing time and the injuries, especially the back, I think teams may be a little hesitant. I could imagine a scenario where Demidov drops to the Canadiens at No.5 due to Russia concerns the same way Michkov dropped to No.7 last year. If that were to happen, it’s conceivable only one of those six defensem*n is available at No.8.
Even though I think they need more upside defensem*n in the pool, if they’re not sold on the one remaining, I could definitely see the Kraken taking the “best player available” or maybe trading down a spot or two.Loading...
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Alan A Daleon May 8, 2024 at 10:31 am
Arizona/Utah and Columbus have shown no hesitancy on Russian picks in recent drafts, so I doubt that will be an issue. Montreal won’t be taking a D this time, and with their smaller Cs, they need someone bigger, so Lindstrom is the right choice.
The interesting choice for the Kraken is whether Francis will go for offense or defense. It is really wide open. Top Shelf’s mock today has Seattle taking Eiserman, as the team needs offense. Craig Button has them take Parekh. They both had the Habs taking Lindstrom.
The thing is, are any of D prospects in the Kraken organisation right now potentially any higher than 2nd or 3rd pairing? If not, perhaps they need to draft a potential 1st pairing D, especially on the right side after missing out on Nemec. Parekh or Yakemchuk are righties,
The organisation has potential top 6 wingers in Rehkopf, Firkus, Nyman, and Sale. Do they draft another in the first round or wait until the second round?
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Daryl Won May 9, 2024 at 9:09 am
Both Arizona/Utah and Columbus passed on Michkov last year. They had excellent alternatives, but Demidov doesn’t seem to me to have the same ceiling as Michkov.
I do think the most likely scenario is, as you’ve said, Demidov goes early and the Canadiens take Lindstrom. Everyone talks about how Montreal has been looking for a No.1 center forever and Lindstrom fits the bill. It is worth mentioning, however, Kent Hughes passed on Shane Wright to take a winger. I think it’s still to soon to know if that was the correct move.
I agree 100% that given the depth of options available and the need that they should absolutely take a defenseman. Other than the unlikely scenario of Lindstrom dropping, they should have a couple available. The only one I’m wary of is Parekh. He’s a right-shot and he scores a ton, but most of what I’ve read, his defense and compete lack and he cheats a lot for that offense. Every draft has a top ten bust, and he could be this years.
If they do go with a forward, I have absolutely no idea what to expect. It seems like there would be four to choose from with none necessarily being the obvious choice.
I think it’s going to be an exciting off-season.Loading...
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Alan A Daleon May 9, 2024 at 1:46 pm
The more I have read all the credible mock drafts, it looks like the Sens will go for a RD (given Sanderson and Chabot are LD), whom most believe will be Parekh. That will likely leave the Kraken with a choice of either Dickinson or Buium. Looks like either is the Oleksiak potential replacement, unless they opt for Yakemchuk instead, then he is the Larsson replacement.
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Chas Gon May 8, 2024 at 9:05 am
I know he gets dinged for his size (although a 5’11” frame is on the tall side of a “small player”) but I hope they go Catton if he’s there at 8. Kid is electric with real high end skill that I think has star potential. The Spokane connection would be an added bonus, but this team needs offensive firepower in the future and I think this kid brings it.
That said, I would not be unhappy with our choice of selection. One of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, or Parekh will be there when we pick. Each of those 4 is a unique profile of player from the others, and I could find myself being excited about any of them. Whether the RHD and offensive game of Parekh, the size and high ceiling of Silayev, or just solid all-around play of Dickinson. With no insider knowledge, Buium is the one I think may be least likely to make it to 8. His arrow is really trending up, but I’d be thrilled to land him.
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FTon May 8, 2024 at 10:43 am
Catton may be available but if the future Kraken lineup is Beniers, Wright, Goyette, and Fisker-Molgaard down the middle, where does Catton fit in? You can never have too much skill but just trying to envision his future place in the lineup.
Agree with all of your D, although it does seem like 6’7″ Silayev would go before number 8. And given we have Dunn in place on the first pairing for future years, does it make more sense to draft a RHD like Parekh or Yakemchuk?
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Chas Gon May 8, 2024 at 11:25 am
It’s a fair point, but this far out I don’t think we know enough about Molgaard or Goyette to assume they’ll be part of the NHL rotation. You’re drafting the best available talent, and if Catton is better than the others you play him. Maybe someone kicks out to wing instead of center, or you end up with a plethora of NHL caliber center prospects and can leverage them in trades, which would honestly be a great scenario.
Regarding fit with Dunn, it would be great to have a star right hand defenseman playing next to your current star left hander, but again I don’t see any problem in the future with having a star left defenseman on your first blue line, and another on your second blueline. It would give you terrific depth in case of injury, and you’d be more likely to always have a top D on the ice. Regarding Parekh, I would specifically not want him playing next to Vince. They’re similar sized guys who play a similar offensive focused games, and I think they’re better suited when paired with a more traditional D. Yakemchuk is a little different. While his game is still offensive focused, he at least provides more size to pair with Vince and if he pans out could maybe create a very dangerous offensive blueline alongside him. I’m less sure about where he goes, there seems to be a range of people who have him in the 2nd tier of players, and others who have him in the 4th tier.
Regardless, I think you draft a defenseman who you’re confident in being a Top 4 guy, not necessarily based on if they can share the same line as Vince.
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